The Price of Perception & Learning to “Close One Eye”

Hey guys, Mikkel here,

Let me get straight to the point today because this is one of those concepts that can fundamentally shift how you think about offshore investing:  

The best opportunities are found in the discrepancy between reality and public perception. 

You see, most people only invest when things look perfect and the mainstream agrees. 

But by then, the upside is gone.

The best opportunities exist when perception and reality are out of alignment…

The best opportunities are found when you know something that others don’t because you have done the research for yourself rather than taken what the masses are saying as fact.

And look, I’m not suggesting you just ignore the challenges…

…I’m telling you that the very existence of those challenges is what makes the upside so big.

When it comes to Brazil, this concept applies perfectly. 

Yes, there’s a lower-income class. 

Yes, some areas are dangerous.

Yes, the bureaucracy is clunky. 

But here’s the reality of things: if all of those things were “fixed,” you wouldn’t be getting in at this price.

If Brazil had the European “branding” of Portugal… the tax incentives of Panama… or the first-world optics of Canada, then beachfront real estate in the Northeast would be selling for 10 or 15x the price.

But right now, that isn’t the case because the world hasn’t caught on yet.

Yes, the mainstream media likes to lump Brazil in with “developing markets” as if it hasn’t been a global powerhouse for decades.

They just can’t seem to look beyond the idea of Brazil they’ve gotten from the movies. 

…or maybe it’s in their best interest not to…

So yes, the mainstream has it wrong.  

But when they eventually catch up and start writing their “Top 10 Places To Retire In Brazil” articles, you’ll want to be holding real estate, I can assure you of this.  

Because at that point the story will be written, the prices will have jumped, and you will have missed the boat. 

Right now, you’re still ahead of it all. And if you’re reading this, that means you’re the kind of person who knows how to move before the herd.

You don’t wait for a green light from the mass media outlets that don’t know up from down before making your move.

You look at the data and the fundamentals, and then you act.

True wealth isn’t built by following mainstream trends; it’s built by identifying mis-priced assets in misunderstood markets. 

That requires courage, vision, and sometimes, the willingness to “close one eye” to the things people look at so you can focus the other one squarely on the signals pointing to massive growth. 

I'm not saying prices in Brazil’s Northeast are going to double next week. 

But I am saying that in 6–18 months, you're going to see a very different landscape.

…just like I’ve already seen over the past two years…

The infrastructure will be further along, more investors will arrive, and the mainstream media will finally start reporting on the rise of Brazil’s Northeast like it's breaking news, while you and I will be sitting there saying, “yeah, we knew this a year ago.”

Allow me to put something into context for you:

Right now, in Brazil’s Northeast, you can buy a beachfront villa with a full ocean view for the same price someone in Toronto or Miami would spend to renovate a mid-sized kitchen.

Let that sink in for a second.

Not a timeshare in a dinky little town that is home to nothing more than just a bunch of cookie-cutter builder-grade townhouses…

I am talking about a fully-titled villa on the beach that you own outright.

…for less than it costs to renovate a bathroom in a “developed” country. 

When people ask me why the prices are so low and why you can still buy anything near the beach in Brazil for well under $100,000, they’re really asking the wrong question.

The real question isn’t why it’s so cheap… it’s how long will it stay that way?

A recent project (which is now sold out by the way) was some beautiful 1-bedroom condos that sold for $67,000 USD cash.

Now ask yourself… what does 67k do for you in your home country?

As I mentioned earlier, you could renovate a small bathroom with that money, which is certainly a nice-to-have, but in reality, it's a sunk cost.

Alternatively, you could own a hard asset that generates cash flow for you every month while gaining in value with every passing day.

The choice is yours…

…and I think it’s an obvious one. 

So why are people seemingly still hesitant to make the leap and invest offshore?

Because they’re still swayed by the headlines.

Despite knowing better than to trust the mass media, the perception has often been so deeply drilled into us that it can be tough for many people to overlook.

Not us.

Forward-thinking investors like us don’t wait for the perception to change, or else we watch the best and biggest opportunities pass us by.

I’ve watched this pattern unfold in dozens of places around the world. 

It’s always the same:

1. Early movers buy based on reality… they see the fundamentals and move before the crowd realizes the actual reality of things. 
   

2. The mainstream catches on (usually when the Financial Times or Bloomberg runs a “hidden gem” type of story). 
   

3. Institutional capital and late-stage retail investors flood in, and prices spike.

We’re currently sitting at stage one… but not for long.

So here’s what I say to clients who are hesitant to allocate a percentage of their capital in Brazil, or even join me on a tour to Brazil (just like the one I’m leading at the beginning of next month, by the way).  

“Sometimes, you just need to close one eye”.

You need to close one eye to the cosmetic things that don’t actually matter and instead, open your eyes to what does. 

If you want everything around you to look like Toronto, you’ll pay Toronto prices (which, according to one of my staff members, isn’t all that pretty anyway). 

However, if you want the biggest upside, you’ll need to trade a bit of comfort. 

Just look at places like Medellín, Colombia, for example.  

For years, all people could think about was the drug-related violence of the 80s and 90s, but the savvy investors who looked past that and saw the transformation happening?  

They were buying up real estate when prices were laughably low. 

Today, Medellín is one of the top expat destinations in the world, and the people who got in early (like our clients) are sitting on the biggest gains.

Brazil’s Northeast is in a similar position right now. 

Right now, in Canada, $300,000 gets you… a 20% down payment on a 3-bed semi with 40-year-old plumbing in a neighbourhood with traffic so bad that you’d be better off walking to wherever you need to go.  

In Brazil’s Northeast? 

That same $300,000 could get you three fully furnished beachfront units that cash flow at 10% annually.

Same money, different future.

In Brazil specifically, the fundamentals are strong; however, what’s not strong yet is the story people tell themselves about what’s possible here.

And again… that’s exactly why the prices are still so good. 

The mainstream press is still stuck in the past, telling the same tired stories about poverty and crime, which is far from the reality.

In Chicago, last year, there were 573 murders, most of which took place about 25 minutes from the main tourist areas of the city.

Yet, this wouldn’t stop you from visiting Chicago, would it?

And that, my friends, is perception vs. reality.

When you understand the fundamentals and you’re willing and able to close one eye to what the headlines say… that’s when the magic happens.

You’re not investing despite the flaws.

You’re investing because of them.

…and I should mention you are rewarded handsomely for this.

The best investments feel slightly uncomfortable, but that’s how you know you’re early. 

If everyone already agrees it’s a great idea, you’re probably too late.

You need to “close one eye” and open the other if you want to see the opportunities that most people can’t.

I decided to share this today because it comes up constantly and usually from people who’ve never set foot in the country, but have plenty of opinions that they’ve been sold from the very same media outlets that most of us didn’t trust when it came time to stick a new vaccine in our arms a few years back.

You’d be shocked how many people I’ve talked to who said, “Mikkel, I just assumed Brazil was too dangerous to visit.”

But then they went and saw it for themselves. 

They walked the beaches.

They met the people.

They saw metropolitan skylines, kids in school uniforms and restaurants filled with young, working-class families enjoying their lives and everything they thought they knew changed. 

The people who see it with their own eyes are the ones who walk away with properties that double or triple in value, while the rest of the world is still Googling, “Is Brazil safe?”

I’ve built my career by going where others won’t… places where the true narrative hasn’t caught up to the reality of things.

Places where you still have to look a little deeper, ask the right questions, and yes, close one eye to some of the blemishes, both the true and the false ones. 

Because that’s how you find true upside.

In Brazil’s Northeast, the price of these assets doesn’t reflect their value. 

It reflects the misconceptions the world still holds about Brazil as a whole. 

Brazil’s Northeast is rising in real time, and the narrative will catch up (just like it did in Medellín). 

And when it does, the opportunity we’re talking about today will be long gone.

We want to be the people selling to that herd. 

Not joining it late and paying “foreigner prices.”

But hey, you don’t just have to take my word for it….

Come see it for yourself in a few weeks.

Get the details here: ExpatMoney.com/Brazil

Or, email Susan right now at [email protected] and she’ll help you reserve your seat and get your travel plans sorted out. 

DEAL OF THE WEEK: Land-Banking Edition

Buy land now. 

Sell the land later. 

It’s that simple.

Here’s the opportunity I’ve got for you today: 

A chance to buy raw land, just minutes from where we have a number of projects, both fully completed and under construction.

…literally in the same stretch of coastal beachfront that’s undergoing a massive transformation in real time. 

You don’t have to build. 

The only thing you have to do is wait. 

You simply buy land now and sell it later. 

In fact, we’ve already facilitated this same type of deal before.

A couple of years ago, we helped a couple of clients buy similar land in this same region, and those lots have since doubled in value… in just two years’ time. 

Now we’re expecting a similar trajectory, however, not overnight… think in the 5 - 8 year range before you’ll see a similar gain as our past clients.

That’s how this works.

It’s not sexy, but it’s highly effective and incredibly straightforward.

The land is titled in your name, and there are no annual property taxes or operating expenses… nada.

Here are the numbers:

• Standard Lot: 320m² (3,445 sqft) - $49,700 USD

• Bigger Lot: 360m² (3,875 sqft) - $59,700 USD

And if you decide to pay cash and buy three lots… you’ll get a fourth lot on us. 

That’s not a typo. It’s a serious offer. 

Four lots for the price of three.

If you prefer a slightly smaller option, that’s fine too, and we can even offer zero percent interest financing over 30 months. 

Just a small down payment and you’re in. 

In markets like this, beachfront and near-beach land always outperforms inland… and this already proven opportunity will be no different. 

This isn’t speculation. 

You buy now, and when the local market demand increases (which it will and already is), then you sell.

Simple as that.

No construction headaches.

No renters.

Just inventory you control in a region that’s absorbing a wave of domestic migration, infrastructure growth, and, in turn, housing demand. 

And just to be clear, it’s not just beachfront land that’s going up in this region…it’s everything around it. 

Roads, restaurants, community infrastructure…

…and with every improvement comes more demand for land, which pushes the price up.

When the time comes to sell, we will help you facilitate the transaction, whether it's selling your land to a family looking to build their own villa or to another developer (perhaps even back to IMPAR), so the land can be developed into vacation rentals or long-term apartments. 

Get in now, hold the asset and let the market catch up for five or so years.

If you’re interested, send Michael an email at [email protected], and you two can discuss the details before striking a deal.

There is not a ton of land in our portfolio that we are willing to part with, so this DEAL OF THE WEEK is a first-come, first-served opportunity.

Wait too long, and this will have been scooped up.

I get asked all the time about land banking here in Brazil, so for those of you asking, I trust this opportunity scratches the itch.


Speak soon,
Mikkel